„Economic Scenarios for Europe and Effects of US Policies”

No matter where you are at the moment, every conversation starts with: What is Trump doing? Erste Group’s Ingo Bleier, CFA and Gerald Walek gave us some insights on the economic scenarios we can expect at the AmCham Talks.

The inflation is not a big topic anymore, it’s moderating further. Spain is standing out in the EU – they still benefit as well as Italy from the European Recovery Fund. Germany and Austria are weak. 1 % growth is expected in the Eurozone for 2025. The big risk factor: trade policies from the US. The market can anticipate that something will come that will effect. The Uncertainty index is rising. It already had a negative effect on growth – just by the reelection of Trump.

Tariffs will effect sensitive product groups as mineral products, chemicals, vehicles, machinery, opticals and F&B the most. The best and worst case szenario for 2025 is 0,1-0,2 % GDP loss and 0,2-0,6 % loss for 2026. Germany will be hit the hardest. This also coincides with the substantial differences with regards to labor productivity between Europe and the US. US is far ahead of the eurozone.

But the outlook was reassuring: Don’t panic! The European economy has a wide variety and resilience. We have to find a way to copying with whatever happens.